Market Adjusts Expectations: Two Rate Cuts Expected This Year

APRIL 12, 2024, By: Movement Team

Blog Market Update Market Adjusts Expectations: Two Rate Cuts Expected This Year
The Federal Reserve has signaled a readiness to reduce interest rates, with the timing dependent on economic indicators. However, recent inflation data suggests that any rate cuts in May or June are unlikely, as inflation has surpassed expectations for the second consecutive month, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% month over month.

This follows last week’s robust employment figures. Consequently, bond yields have climbed, with 10-year yields increasing by 15 basis points this week. Market sentiment has adjusted accordingly, now anticipating two rate cuts this year, down from three, with the first expected in September.

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Original post: https://movement.com/blog/2024/04/market-adjusts-expectations-two-rate-cuts-expected

Jobs Report Surprises: 303,000 Jobs Added – What’s Next?

The Federal Reserve stands poised to ease rates, contingent upon a compelling impetus from the economy. Recent economic data suggests a lack of urgency for immediate action. Key focus remains on inflation metrics and payroll figures, with today’s nonfarm payroll release surpassing expectations, adding 303,000 jobs compared to the projected 214,000.

The supply of labor is increasing with the current rate of immigration, so the question is, how much if any will the strong labor growth impact inflation and wage pressures? Despite the market anticipation of 50-75 basis points in rate cuts in 2024, the prevailing strong economic indicators do not signal an imminent necessity to start the easing cycle.

Information provided by Jason Jean, Movement Mortgage. Original post located: https://movement.com/blog/2024/04/303000-jobs-added-whats-next

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March 1 -April 1 Market Stats for Pioneer Valley

A lot of interesting movement this past month! Give me a call if you’d like to grab a cup and discuss things!

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Commissions, Fees, and the proposed NAR/DOJ Settlement

Everyone wants to know what the proposed NAR/DOJ settlement means for housing prices, commissions, and more.

I will be sending out this month’s eNewsletter in a couple days and I will address this. It is ONLY going to people who have opted in to my contact list/eNewsletter as I am NOT speaking for anyone other than myself and only TO my clients, customers, and sphere.

If you want to receive a copy of the clarification, you will need to opt in here:

https://winwithvin.kw.com

Scroll to the very bottom and indicate in the message field that you want to be added to the eNewsletter list.

Thank you.

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Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, But 3 Cuts Expected This Year

By: Movement Team
MARCH 22, 2024

Blog Market Update Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, But 3 Cuts Expected This Year
The pivotal event of the week revolved around Wednesday’s March FOMC meeting. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, yet the unveiling of their updated SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) provided intriguing insights. Notably, they revised their GDP forecast for 2024 upwards, lowered the unemployment rate projection, and raised the Core PCE forecast (PCE being the Fed’s preferred inflation index).

Concurrently, they maintained their outlook of executing three rate cuts amounting to 75 basis points by year-end. So the economy is strong, inflation is a little sticky, yet the Fed is still looking to cut. They clearly are inclined to ease financial conditions, with a willingness to allow inflation to reach the 2.00% target over time. The lingering query remains: when will the rate cuts commence?

This article originally appeared at https://movement.com/blog/2024/03/rates-unchanged-but-3-cuts-expected

For more information, please contact our vendor partner:

Jason Jean, LOAN OFFICER
NMLS: 135889
cell: (413) 374-3252
1492 Main St
Agawam, MA 01001
jason.jean@movement.com
https://movement.com/lo/jason-jean

AUTHOR: MOVEMENT TEAM

About Movement Mortgage
Movement Mortgage exists to love and value people by leading a Movement of Change in its industry, corporate culture, and communities. Funding approximately $30 billion in residential mortgages annually, Movement is the sixth-largest retail mortgage lender in the U.S. Movement is best known for its innovative mortgage process and referable experience, which begins with Upfront Underwriting and a seven-day loan processing goal. The company employs more than 4,000 people, has more than 650 branches in the U.S. and is licensed in 50 states. After funding its balance sheet and investing in future growth, Movement’s profits are paid to its primary shareholder, the nonprofit Movement Foundation. To date, Movement Foundation has received more than $360 million of Movement profit to invest in schools, affordable housing, communities, and global outreach. For more information, visit www.movement.com.

WinWithVin® #REALTOR #MortgageRates #KellerWilliams #PioneerValley #WesternMA #MassachusettsRealEstate #Amherst #Deerfield #Greenfield #Northampton #SouthDeerfield #AgentOfDistinction #AHWD #SRES #WinWithVin

Inflation Persists, But Hope for Lower Rates Remains

By: Movement Staff

MARCH 15, 2024

This week witnessed turbulence in bond yields, driven by unexpected rises in both consumer and producer inflation measures. While Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 0.40% month over month and 3.8% year over year, slightly exceeding expectations, it’s not the direction the Fed desires. Similarly, the Producer Price Index (PPI) also surpassed forecasts. The Federal Reserve, perceiving current rates as restrictive to economic growth, has hinted at a potential cut, but the timing is now uncertain due to the recent inflation upticks.

Market sentiment suggests rate cuts might commence around the June or July meetings, with an anticipated reduction of 75-100 basis points (0.75% – 1%) by year-end. The upcoming March FOMC meeting is poised to shed further light on this situation.

Original post by Jason Jean, Movement Mortgage: https://movement.com/blog/2024/03/inflation-persists-but-hope-for-lower-rates-remain

Market Stats for March 15

Pioneer Valley Stats for March 1 – March 15, 2024.

Let’s grab a cup and discuss!

WinWithVin® #REALTOR #KellerWilliams #PioneerValley #WesternMA #MassachusettsRealEstate #Amherst #Deerfield #Greenfield #Northampton #SouthDeerfield #AgentOfDistinction #AHWD #SRES #WinWithVin

Recent Inflation Data Shows Downward Momentum

By: Movement Team
MARCH 1, 2024

The bond market exhibited a surprising level of calm this week despite a wealth of economic data. Of particular significance were Thursday’s releases, including key indicators such as Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) – the latter being the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The focus on inflation was underscored by Core PCE, which aligned closely with expectations, registering a Year-over-Year decline to 2.8% from the previous month’s 2.9%. Over a six-month period, the PCE inflation rate is even lower. Notably, this morning’s manufacturing data revealed a performance weaker than anticipated.

Despite signs of a resilient economy, there are indications of potential slowing as the Federal Reserve continues to make strides in aligning inflation with its target rate.

Article originally posted at: https://movement.com/blog/2024/03/recent-inflation-data-shows-downward-momentum

For more information, please contact our vendor partner:

Jason Jean, LOAN OFFICER
NMLS: 135889
cell: (413) 374-3252
1492 Main St
Agawam, MA 01001
jason.jean@movement.com
https://movement.com/lo/jason-jean

WinWithVin® #REALTOR #MortgageRates #KellerWilliams #PioneerValley #WesternMA #MassachusettsRealEstate #Amherst #Deerfield #Greenfield #Northampton #SouthDeerfield #AgentOfDistinction #AHWD #SRES #WinWithVin

Welcome to March 2024 issue of Recipes & Real Estate!

Happy March and Welcome Spring!

First, how about some personal news?

It’s true! Mike and I have relocated back to Massachusetts. We’ve purchased an adorable antique-style, farm house complete with an old dairy barn, a barn converted to a 3-bay garage (with car charger) and stalls for animals, an old tobacco, and our own pond.

We’re looking forward to showing it off as we upgrade and renovate to return this ol’ gal back to her shining glory. Are you up for a visit? Let us know!

Now, on to the real estate!

The spring real estate market is ALREADY in full swing, and folks are realizing that there isn’t going to be an across-the-board crash. They’re also realizing that the interest rates are what they are and it might be best to find the right house at the right price NOW and refinance later.

As a result, I’ve been getting lots of questions on the best way to enter the market to effectively start a home search. Below are the 2 most important things that I suggest if someone wants to enter the real estate market.

  1. Establish a working relationship with the right REALTOR®that would be me.
    Working with the right agent is more important than you may think. Look for someone who’s professional, reliable, committed to your goal, and knowledgeable in your area of interest. Remember that your agent is representing you so choosing someone with integrity, experience, and resources is important. You want someone who is going to be able to represent your best interests and can negotiate on your behalf – that means that they need to know you and your goals, and you have to be able to trust them.

Remember that there is a difference in most states between a client and a customer. The main difference centers around clients being entitled to receive advice/representation and ministerial acts whereas customers are only entitled to ministerial acts and NOT advice. One becomes a client by entering into an “agency relationship” by signing a Buyer Broker Agreement which outlines the responsibilities and rights of each party in a real estate transaction representation.

  1. Financing Options – Get pre-qualified or pre-approved as soon as possible AND this is something that I can guide you through.

Things are still moving quickly so you want to be prepared to make an offer as quickly as possible. Also, sellers and seller agents often require that potential buyers be pre-approved or pre-qualified to schedule a showing. Getting pre-approved will let you know how much you can afford, the type of mortgage that might be best for your individual situation and will let sellers know that you are serious about buying a home.

My standard practice is to ask clients to investigate 3 financing options/financial institutions to give them the best overview of which scenarios may be the best for them. I am happy to provide introductions to our preferred mortgage vendors. Your loan officer(s) will go over best financial practices including what to do and what NOT to do, documents that you will need to provide, the timeline/process, and more.

Feel free to reach out with any questions!

Finally, let’s talk recipe!

I posted this recipe last year and I’m re-posting it now. It’s easy, yummy, and is the perfect start to Spring for me.
Enjoy!

Cajun Style Salmon – Serves: 4

2 lb salmon, skin-on or skin-off
2 teaspoons kosher salt
1 1/2 teaspoons garlic powder
1 teaspoon ground white pepper
1 teaspoon crushed red pepper flakes
1 teaspoon dried oregano
1/2 teaspoon ground cayenne pepper
1/2 teaspoon onion powder
1/2 teaspoon dried thyme
1/2 teaspoon smoked paprika
4 tablespoons unsalted butter, cubed
*optional, lemon slices/wedges

Preheat the oven to 375°F.

  1. In a small bowl, combine all spices together, mixing well to fully incorporate. Set aside.
  2. Use a large baking dish (such as a 9×13-inch vessel) and line dish with aluminum foil, enough foil to drape over sides to fully envelope salmon.
  3. Place salmon on top of foil and season with spices all over. Rub spices into salmon all around to fully coat salmon in its entirety.
  4. Add cubed butter all over tops and sides of salmon. Cover salmon tightly in foil.
  5. Bake salmon for 25-30 minutes (this may depend on the thickness of the fish) or until salmon is cooked through and flakes with a fork. Serve warm with lemon slices/wedges.

For sides, let your own taste be the guide. I like a nice rice pilaf (with pistachios and raisins) and a side of green beans cooked with a bit of lemon juice.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the newsletter this month!

All my best,

—Vin

Vin Russo, REALTOR®, Associate Partner
Keller Williams Pioneer Valley
300 Pleasant Street, Northampton, MA 01060
c: 413-200-0790 | o: 413-585-0022
SRES®, AHWD®, KW Agent of Distinction

Economic Strength Mutes Fed’s Rate Cut Urgency

By: Movement Staff
FEBRUARY 23, 2024

February’s trend toward higher rates continued this week, as the notes from the January FOMC meeting and comments from Fed officials made clear that rate cuts aren’t imminent. The minutes from the January meeting showed that many participants felt that there was greater risk in easing too soon versus waiting for a few more months of inflation data. Comments this week from Federal Reserve officials also suggested that a few more months of economic data is needed to confirm that cuts are appropriate. The economy is proving to be resilient, and the recent strong economic data is reducing the urgency in cutting rates. A rate cut at the March meeting was already priced out of the market, and now cuts in May are also seen as unlikely. The current consensus view in the market is for 4 cuts in 2024, starting with the June meeting.

While it is important for homebuyers to stay informed of the upcoming rate expectations, it is advised that they don’t delay a purchase in expectation of a future rate drop. In fact, it could be advantageous to buy now. Read this Market Update from September to find out why.

AUTHOR: MOVEMENT STAFF
The Market Update is a weekly commentary compiled by a group of Movement Mortgage capital markets analysts with decades of combined expertise in the financial field. Movement’s staff helps take complicated economic topics and turn them into a useful, easy to understand analysis to help you make the best decisions for your financial future.

This article is originally posted at Movement Mortgage
and comes to us through Jason Jean Jason Jean of Movement Mortgage.

WinWithVin® #REALTOR #KellerWilliams #PioneerValley #WesternMA #MassachusettsRealEstate #Amherst #Deerfield #Greenfield #Northampton #SouthDeerfield #AgentOfDistinction #AHWD #SRES #InterestRates #WinWithVin